COVID19 Impact on Tourism- Finance Ministry

Sunday 26th of April 2020

COVID19 Impact on Tourism- Finance Ministry

Ministry of Finance has published a presentation on the economic and fiscal impact of Covid-19, and proposed response measures. To forecast the number of tourist arrivals, Ministry has put together 5 scenarios. The most accurate scenario is believed to be Scenario 3.

Scenario 01: In this scenario the ministry expects total tourist arrival at 962,398 for the entire year and a total of only 579,720 arrivals to the country in the remainder of 2020. The arrival drop is estimated at 44% with bed-night dropping by 30% and the estimated month for commencement of recovery is May 2020.

Scenario 02: The total number of arrivals is estimated at 883,288 and a mere 500,610 arrivals for the remainder of the year. Expected decline on tourist arrivals is projected at 48% and 36% for bed-night decline. Estimated month of recovery commencement under this scenario is June 2020.

Scenario 03: The projected total arrival count is at 845,546 for the entire year and 462,868 tourist arrivals for the remainder of 2020. Tourist arrival is expected to recede by 50% and bed-night drop is expected to hit 39% while the month of recovery commencement is expected in July.

Scenario 04: Projected total arrival for the entire year is at 625,082 while projection of arrivals for the remainder of the year is at only 242,404. Tourist arrivals expected to plummet by 63% and a slip of 56% in bed-nights. Month of recovery commencement is expected at October – well into the final quarter of the year.

Scenario 05: The worst case scenario with projected total arrival at an alarming 382,678 with nil tourist arrivals to the country for the rest of the year. Tourist arrivals to drop by a staggering 78% and bed-nights to drop by 74% while the month of recovery commencement is expected in January 2021.